Material on Judgment and Decision Making
A compilation of main findings concerning people's judgment and
decision-making errors:
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and
biases. [Chapter] Arkes, Hal R. (Ed), Hammond, Kenneth R. (Ed), et al.
(1986). Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader. (pp.
38-55). Cambridge, England UK: Cambridge University Press. xiv, 818 pp.
Does the "hot hand" in basketball exist?:
Gilovich, Thomas; Vallone, Robert; Tversky, Amos. The hot hand in
basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. [Journal Article]
Cognitive Psychology. Vol 17(3), Jul 1985, 295-314.
Conjunction fallacy:
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The
conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. [Journal Article] Psychological
Review. Vol 90(4), Oct 1983, 293-315.
How good are our statistical intuitions?:
Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos. On the study of statistical intuitions.
[Journal Article] Cognition. Vol 11(2), Mar 1982, 123-141.
Availability heuristic:
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. Availability: A heuristic for judging
frequency and probability. [Journal Article] Cognitive Psychology. Vol.
5(2), Sep 1973, 207-232.
Representativeness heuristic:
Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos. Subjective probability: A judgment of
representativeness. [Journal Article] Cognitive Psychology. Vol. 3(3), Jul
1972, 430-454.
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. Belief in the law of small numbers.
[Journal Article] Psychological Bulletin. Vol. 76(2), Aug 1971, 105-110.
Framing effects:
Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel. The framing of decisions and the psychology
of choice. [Journal Article] Science. Vol 211(4481), Jan 1981, 453-458.
Teaching better reasoning under uncertainty:
Kosonen, Peter; Winne, Philip H. Effects of teaching statistical laws on
reasoning about everyday problems. [Journal Article] Journal of Educational
Psychology. Vol 87(1), Mar 1995, 33-46.
Fong, Geoffrey T; Nisbett, Richard E. Immediate and delayed transfer of
training effects in statistical reasoning. [Journal Article] Journal of
Experimental Psychology: General. Vol 120(1), Mar 1991, 34-45.
Lehman, Darrin R; Lempert, Richard O; Nisbett, Richard E. The effects of
graduate training on reasoning: Formal discipline and thinking about
everyday-life events. [Journal Article] American Psychologist. Vol 43(6),
Jun 1988, 431-442.
Nisbett, Richard E; Fong, Geoffrey T; Lehman, Darrin R; Cheng, Patricia W.
Teaching reasoning. [Journal Article] Science. Vol 238(4827), Oct 1987,
625-631.
Critique of the error-focussed approach to human judgement under
uncertainty:
Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd. The "conjunction fallacy" revisited: How
intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. [Journal Article] Journal
of Behavioral Decision Making. Vol 12(4), Dec 1999, 275-305.
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich; Kleinboelting, Heinz. Probabilistic
mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. [Journal Article]
Psychological Review. Vol 98(4), Oct 1991, 506-528.
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich. How to improve Bayesian reasoning
without instruction: Frequency formats. [Journal Article] Psychological
Review. Vol 102(4), Oct 1995, 684-704.
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hell, Wolfgang; Blank, Hartmut. Presentation and content:
The use of base rates as a continuous variable. [Journal Article] Journal of
Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance. Vol 14(3), Aug
1988, 513-525.